Selasa, 25 September 2018

PDF Ebook Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

PDF Ebook Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb


PDF Ebook Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Quel est le point commun entre l'invention de la roue, Pompei, le krach boursier de 1987, Harry Potter et Internet? Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train? Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilites? Pourquoi les previsionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs? Ce livre revele tout des Cygnes Noirs, ces evenements aleatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie: ils ont un impact enorme, sont presque impossibles a prevoir, et pourtant, a posteriori, nous essayons toujours de leur trouver une explication rationnelle. Dans cet ouvrage eclairant, plein d'esprit d'impertinence et bien souvent prophetique, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains experts, et nous montre comment cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l'incertitude.

  • Sales Rank: #4326409 in Books
  • Published on: 2010-09-30
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 7.25" h x 4.50" w x 1.25" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Mass Market Paperback
  • 496 pages

Review
Prevoir l'imprevu. Nassim Nicholas Taleb raisonnait sur le 11 Septembre et sur la crise financiere de 1987. Cygnes noirs ! Ils auraient pu etre prevus ? Non. C'est la une rationalisation apres coup visant a nous securiser. Il faut donc changer notre conception de la prevision, et notre maniere de penser. Il est urgent d'acquerir un regard ouvert a l'imprevu. Dans cet ouvrage eclairant, plein d'esprit et d'impertinence, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos des experts, et nous montre comment cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l'incertitude. Cet essai, riche de nombreuses references philosophiques et mathematiques, est passionnant. La crise actuelle devrait en rendre la lecture obligatoire. Nous avons naturellement tendance a ecouter les experts, meme dans les domaines ou il n'en existe pas, et les analystes financiers font pire que les previsions meteorologiques, ironise ce volumineux ouvrage qui, avec esprit et impertinence, invite le lecteur a se mefier des previsionnistes. Ce livre est un OPNI, un objet pensant non identifie ! Il mele anecdotes personnelles, histoires d'erudit, cours de probabilite, reflexion sur la connaissance, denonciation des uns et admiration des autres. Il s'en est vendu 500 000 exemplaires aux Etats-Unis, ou il est longtemps reste en tete des ventes. C'est la crise. Et non, vous n'etes pas les seuls a souffrir, a vous lever la nuit pour aller vers le refrigerateur. Les stars aussi ont peur d'etre cette dinde dont parle Nassim Nicholas Taleb dans Le Cygne noir, livre admirable a lire d'urgence. Cet essai philosophique sur l'importance du hasard est inclassable. L'auteur y multiplie les anecdotes personnelles, les exemples, pour mieux mettre a la portee de tous son point de vue. Internet, la crise financiere d'aujourd'hui, la sage Harry Potter, sont autant de cygnes noirs, positifs ou negatifs. Pour Nassim Nicholas Taleb, la cle du succes est de prevoir l'imprevisible, les scenari impossibles. Cet ouvrage est ecrit dans un style ludique et interactif qui se veut accessible, melant anecdotes et souvenirs de l'ex-trader. Chaque chapitre invite le lecteur a remettre en question tout ce qu'il considere comme des evidences. Un developpement intitule Comment tirer la lecon de la dinde compare le sort des humains surs d'eux et credules a celui du volatile, qui ne se doute pas que ceux qui le nourrissent gentiment vont bientot lui tordre le cou... Dans un essai stimulant et jubilatoire, Nassim Nicholas Taleb souligne notre incapacite a reconnaitre la puissance de l'imprevisible. Ce gai savoir a pour vertu de nous pousser a regarder differemment notre realite quotidienne. Les Belles Lettres viennent de publier la traduction pour la France de l'ouvrage de Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, deja vendu a 700 000 exemplaires. Depuis quelques temps, la formule Black Swan est entree dans le langage courant. Jerome Kerviel, qui a fait perdre tant d'argent a la Societe Generale ? C'est un Black Swan . La quasi-faillite de la banque d'affaires americaine Bear Stearns ? C'est un Black Swan On identifie le Black Swan grace a trois elements intimement lies: 1. il est totalement inattendu 2. son impact est gigantesque 3. notre cerveau va trouver des raisons logiques pour l'expliquer a posteriori Regardez le cas de Lehman Brothers. Des tas de commentateurs expliquent aujourd'hui que sa faillite etait ineluctable. Les investisseurs et les professionnels de marche ont beaucoup de mal a accepter que l'imprevisible arrive et que l'imprevisibilite de notre monde augmente. Inclassable et brillant, ce livre etait deja un best-seller en anglais avant la crise... Nassim Nicholas Taleb defend la these selon laquelle les evenements les plus improbables finissent toujours par arriver. Ironiquement, cet essais qui fait la nique aux modeles mathematiques des marches, a fait fureur chez les banquiers. [...] L'ouvrage tient en haleine par des references a large spectre maniees de facon si convaincante que Popper ou Mandelbrot en deviennent presents. Refusant d'etre un gourou donnant une recette pour apprivoiser le cygne noir, Taleb nous invite a en mesurer la puissance. Il y a une reelle force intellectuelle dans la resistance aux illusions de la connaissance. N'est guere aise a pratiquer le renversement voulant que l'aberration soit percue comme centrale et l'ordinaire comme secondaire.

About the Author
Libano-américain, Nassim Nicholas Taleb est écrivain et philosophe des sciences du hasard. Depuis 2007, il est l''essayiste le plus lu et le plus traduit dans le monde, le seul à avoir anticipé la crise financière et son ampleur. Ancien trader des marchés, Taleb se consacre aujourd''hui à l''écriture et enseigne les rapports entre l''épistémologie et les sciences de l''incertitude à l''Institut polytechnique de la New York University où il a reçu le titre prestigieux de distinguished prof essor. Best-seller traduit en trente-deux langues, son premier ouvrage, Le Hasard sauvage a paru aux Belles Lettres en 2005. Le Cygne Noir, a été vendu a plus de deux millions et demi d''exemplaires dans le monde. Traduit de l''anglais par Christine Rimoldy avec la collaboration de l''auteur.

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Le Cygne Noir: La Puissance De L'imprevisible (Romans, Essais, Poesie, Documents) (French Edition)By Nassim Nicholas Taleb PDF
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Jumat, 21 September 2018

Download Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie

Download Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie

When somebody reads a book in a sanctuary or in waiting list place, what will you consider her or him? Do you really feel that they are kind of egotistic individuals that uncommitted of the area around? In fact, people that read wherever they are may not appear so, however they might become the centerpiece. Nevertheless, exactly what they mean in some cases will certainly not as like just what we believed.

Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie

Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie


Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie


Download Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie

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We know that you are also fan of the author of this publication. So, it will not be even worse for you to select it as referral. Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus Of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie, as one of the crucial publications to review can be thought about as a publication that provides you something suggested. You could take the similar subject from various other book, yet the one that can give you better impact is this publication. This condition will really influence you to serve the reliable selection.

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Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie

According to Orumila, there are three main factors conducive to a blissful sojourn on earth. One of some questions which I have asked on a number of occasions. It will be necessary at the outset to define what a blissful or successful life is. All too often there is a tendency for people to define true happiness and satisfaction, hedonistically, that is in terms of material satisfaction and synthetic pleasure.

Against the foregoing background, I will now proceed to illustrate Orunmila’s three prescriptions for lasting happiness in our planet. These three factors are: To come through one’s destined parents to the world; to have the fortune of meeting one’s destined marital partner on earth; and to be born into the right ambience.

In this volume, IFISM-The Complete Works of Orunmila, Volumes Ten-Eleven-Twelve-Thirteen, The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura and Irete, Mr. Cromwell Osamaro Ibie continues his revelations of Odu (sacred text of Ifa). In addtion to revealing the earthly works performed by each Odu (disciple of Orunmila) Mr. Ibie also gives account as in his previous volumes of the heavenly works of the Odus as well.

  • Sales Rank: #1781009 in Books
  • Published on: 2005-01-01
  • Original language: English
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 365 pages

About the Author
From 1985 to the present, Mr. Osamaro Ibie has been serving as a member of the governing Council of the Federal Government owned University of Benin, in Edo State. Since his retirement from the Civil Service in 1980, he has actively engaged in business in the private sector. He was in 1992 awarded an Honarary Fellowship of the Institute of Administrative Management of Nigeria (FIAMN - Hon.) and recognized as a certified and Distinguished Administrator (CDA). In 2000, Mr. C. Osamaro Ibie received his Doctorate of Jurisprudence, University of Marlborough, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A.

Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie PDF
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Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie PDF
Ifism, Vols. 10, 11, 12, & 13: The Odus of Ogunda, Osa, Etura & IreteBy Osamaro Ibie PDF